One of the worst, if not the worst, scenarios for cricket in Pakistan played itself out. The most grievous error in judgment was not to provide the highest level of security to the one team that was willing to tour. There seem to be three basic causes for this: First incompetence and then the falsely held perception that westerners are the likely targets. Lastly the current politics for government forming in Punjab must also have been a distraction as police and administration officials were jostled around.
If the security arrangements had been sufficient even then an attack would have led to the cancellation of the tour but perhaps the attackers would not have come in such close proximity to the players and officials. However, there is some chance that the attackers may have opted out if there was more security. This has some legs because these were not suicide bombers and were relying on getting away. Now the new wrong perception being perpetuated is that this is a Mumbai like attack. This is completely different: First in Mumbai though the locations targeted were specific but the people were targeted indiscriminately. Here there was a very specific target: The Sri Lankan team convoy. The Mumbai attackers were trying to maximize casualties while the Lahore attackers were very specific in their targeting. Second the Mumbai attackers were in it to death while the Lahore attackers wanted to and (for now at least) did get away. This is another question which will have to be asked: Why were all fourteen able to get away? Certainly they had put some thought into it. Their objectives too remain unclear. Were they trying to inflict casualties on the Sri Lankan team or did they want to kidnap them (which some have suggested) or was it just that they wanted to create an incident to show instability. While certainly they had no regard for life at this point the third option seems to be the more probable reason for their actions.
If the security arrangements had been sufficient even then an attack would have led to the cancellation of the tour but perhaps the attackers would not have come in such close proximity to the players and officials. However, there is some chance that the attackers may have opted out if there was more security. This has some legs because these were not suicide bombers and were relying on getting away. Now the new wrong perception being perpetuated is that this is a Mumbai like attack. This is completely different: First in Mumbai though the locations targeted were specific but the people were targeted indiscriminately. Here there was a very specific target: The Sri Lankan team convoy. The Mumbai attackers were trying to maximize casualties while the Lahore attackers were very specific in their targeting. Second the Mumbai attackers were in it to death while the Lahore attackers wanted to and (for now at least) did get away. This is another question which will have to be asked: Why were all fourteen able to get away? Certainly they had put some thought into it. Their objectives too remain unclear. Were they trying to inflict casualties on the Sri Lankan team or did they want to kidnap them (which some have suggested) or was it just that they wanted to create an incident to show instability. While certainly they had no regard for life at this point the third option seems to be the more probable reason for their actions.
At this moment the setback is large. However, some of the initial comments and reactions of despair in the press not withstanding this is not the end. There will be fallout. Go back and fix what needs to be fixed.
